Problems with Modeling Real‐Time Reservoir Operations

Abstract

Existence of several problems associated with the optimization of real‐time operations of reservoir systems is demonstrated. The first problem presented is due to the use of imperfect streamflow (inflow to the reservoir) forecasts. It is shown that there is a significant relationship between the reliability of the forecast information and the operating or forecast horizon to be used in the model. To illustrate the implications of this relationship, an example is given where extending the forecast horizon beyond three days does not improve the performance of the model for real‐time operations. Real‐time operations models often require routing models that relate reservoir releases to the flows at downstream points. It is illustrated with examples that use of approximate reach routing models may cause unexpected problems and may mislead the decision makers. A method to partially resolve the problem is also suggested.