Predicting Neighborhood Decline within a Large Central City: An Application of Discriminant Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of discriminant analysis as an empirical technique for assisting the urban planner in predicting patterns of neighborhood change. A discriminant model estimated for ninety low-income census tracts within the city of Pittsburgh predicts 97% of upgrading income paths and 92% of downgrading paths over the period 1960 to 1970. Some form of the discriminant model would appear to be a useful guide to policymakers and a reasonable technique for limiting the areas of immediate policy concern.