Abstract
Statistical data are collected so as to quantify the probability of occurrence of voluntary course changes in heavy weather as well as their dependence on significant wave height and on ship heading. Decision rules are established about when and how to change course, on the basis of the analysis of operational data and of interviews with experienced shipmasters. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed so as to determine how an omnidirectional distribution of initial headings is changed by voluntary course changes depending on the significant wave height. Finally, the effect of the nonuniform distribution of headings on the mean wave-induced vertical bending moment is calculated. It is shown that although heavy weather maneuvering eases the ship motions, it can increase the wave-induced bending moments and thus increase the probability of structural failure.