Prairie producers are now being rewarded with significant premiums for producing wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) of high protein concentration. We analyzed data from two 12-yr experiments conducted on a medium-textured Orthic Brown Chernozem at Swift Current, Saskatchewan, to determine and quantify factors influencing grain N concentration of hard red spring wheat grown on stubble land. Results of one of the 12-yr studies, a snow management × fertilizer N, zero-tillage experiment, showed that under hot, dry conditions, grain N concentration was very high and increased with moderate rates of fertilizer N (FN), then levelled off at higher rates of N. Under cool, wet conditions, grain N first decreased (due to N dilution by yield) then increased with further addition of FN. Under warm intermediate moisture conditions, grain N concentration increased at moderate rates in response to FN. Data for the two 12-yr experiments were pooled and multiple regression, with backward elimination, and stepwise selection used to develop the relationship:Grain N (g kg−1) = −7.63 + 0.05 WU − 0.000094 WU2 + 0.30 SN − 0.0022 SN2 − (0.0010 SN × WU) + (0.0017 FN × SN) + 0.0189 DD (R2 = 0.64, P = 0.001, n = 262)where WU = water use (mm), SN = soil test N (kg ha−1), FN = (kg ha−1), and DD = degree-days >5 °C (°C-days) from 1 May to 31 August. WU was available spring soil water in 0- to 1.2-m depth plus 1 May to 31 July precipitation, and SN was NO3-N in the 0- to 0.6-m depth, measured in the fall. We attempted to validate this model using data from a long-term crop rotation and a fertilizer trial experiment in the Brown soil zone, a tillage × rotation experiment in the Dark Brown soil zone in Saskatchewan, and an irrigation × N fertilizer experiment in the Brown soil zone of southern Alberta. Validation met with only modest success (R2 up to 0.70, P = 0.001). Generally, estimated grain N concentrations were lower than the measured values. Water use (negatively related) and temperature (DD) (positively related) were the most important factors influencing grain N, while FN and SN (positively related) were much less important. Because of the complexity of response in grain N to the aforementioned factors, and since farmers cannot predict weather conditions, fertilizer management to achieve high protein remains a challenge under dryland conditions. Key words: Soil test N, fertilizer N, available water, degree-days