Localized prostate cancer treated by external-beam radiotherapy alone: serum prostate-specific antigen--driven outcome analysis.

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Abstract
PURPOSE To determine the 5-year rate of survival with no evidence of disease (NED) using strict biochemical criteria in men with prostate cancer treated by external-beam radiotherapy alone and to examine possible clinical and treatment factors that predict the likelihood of NED survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS Five hundred men with clinically localized prostate cancer consecutively treated with external-beam radiotherapy alone with no prior, concomitant, or adjuvant endocrine therapy were identified. All patients had serial serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values determined after treatment and 451 patients had pretreatment PSA values determined. The median follow-up duration is 20 months (range, 2 to 72; mean, 36). RESULTS The 5-year rate of overall survival in this group of patients was 80%. The 5-year rate of survival without clinical evidence of disease (cNED) was 72%. The 5-year rate of survival without evidence of clinical, radiographic, or biochemical relapse (bNED) was 51%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that a pretreatment serum PSA level < or = 15 ng/mL was the most important predictor of bNED survival (P < .0001). Patients with early-stage (T1, T2a/b) tumors and a pretreatment serum PSA less than 15 ng/mL had a 3-year rate of bNED survival of 86%. The rate of bNED survival for patients with a pretreatment PSA level greater than 15 ng/mL was 38% at 3 years. CONCLUSION Pretreatment serum PSA level is the most important predictor of treatment outcome in this group of patients treated with definitive radiotherapy alone. External-beam radiation alone can produce acceptable early rates of bNED survival in patients with clinically organ-confined tumors and a pretreatment PSA level < or = 15 ng/mL. To produce acceptable results in those patients with pretreatment PSA levels more than 15 ng/mL, effective adjuvant treatments in addition to aggressive local treatments are necessary.