A Prognostic Model for Clinical Stage I Melanoma of the Upper Extremity. The Importance of Anatomic Subsites in Predicting Recurrent Disease

Abstract

Thirteen variables were studied for their relative usefulness in predicting recurrent disease in 107 patients with clinical Stage I melanoma of the upper extremity. After a mean follow-up period of 54 months, the only patients who have had recurrent disease to date are those whose primary lesions were located either on the hand or posterior upper arm. The five-year, disease-free survival role for 44 patients with melanoma at these sites was 68%. None of 63 patients with melanoma located on the forearm of anterior upper arm have had recurrent disease (i.e., the five-year, disease-free survival rate was 100% (p = 0.00004), compared with the hand or posterior arm group). A Cox proportional hazards (multivariate) analysis demonstrated that two primary tumor histologic variables, thickness in millimeters and ulceration, interacted to produce the best prognostic model for those 44 patients with melanoma of the hand or posterior upper arm. Twenty-one