The epidemic in a closed population with all susceptibles equally vulnerable; some results for large susceptible populations and small initial infections

Abstract

Kendall's (1956) approach to the ‘general’ epidemic is generalized by dropping the assumptions of constant infectivity and random recovery or death of ill individuals. A great deal of attention is paid to the biological background and the heuristics of the model formulation. Some new results are: (l) the derivation of Kermack's and McKendrick's integral equation from what seems to be the most general set of assumptions in section 2.2, (2) the use of Kermack's and McKendrick's final value equation to arrive at a finite time version of the threshold theorem for the general case, comparable to that for the case of only one Markovian state of illness in section 2.5, (3) the analysis of the behaviour of the solutions of the integral equation when the starting infection approaches zero in section 2.7, (4) the derivation of the probability structure of a general branching process, after conditioning on extinction in section 3.6, (5) the statement of the generalized versions of Kendall's ideas in the form of precise limit conjectures in section 4, (6) the derivation of a closed expression for the limit epidemic resulting from (3) in appendix 4.