Areal differences in Latin American fertility

Abstract

This study correlates areal differences in the child-woman ratio in the 318 local political units of 18 Latin American republics in about 1950 with eight independent variables, six of which are considered to be indices of level of economic development. Taken together the six variables measuring level of economic development were found to be inversely related to fertility. The difference between actual fertility in each local unit and that predicted by the eight-variable multiple regression equation was computed for each local unit and an average of these differences was obtained for each nation. The national differences between actual and expected fertility were then correlated with two measures of recent change in level of economic development for each nation. This analysis revealed that higher than expected fertility was positively associated with a rapid increase in economic level. The data lend themselves to the conclusion that a rapid rate of economic development leads to an increase in fertility in the short run which is counteracted in the long run by fertility-depressing forces associated with a high level of economic development.