Abstract
SUMMARY: A numerical model of male and female replacement processes in a dairy cattle population was constructed in order to describe the long-term genetic and financial consequences of selection amongst bulls in AI.Changes with time in the relative contribution of different generations of offspring to the total genetic improvement of the population were described. It was shown that the genetic change resulting from a single selection process amongst the males eventually approaches an equilibrium many years after selection is practised. Owing to the delays involved in the progeny test, individual males made no genetic contribution for a period of 10 years and a small but constant contribution thereafter.The costs of bull testing and selection, and the monetary benefits obtained from it, were estimated. Current selection procedures proved to be highly profitable at prevailing market prices. Capital invested in the testing programme was recovered within 2 to 5 years of the first offspring calving.The effect of changes in milk prices and feeding costs on monetary returns was examined. It was concluded that sire testing programmes are likely to prove unprofitable only under extremely adverse economic conditions.