The Clinical and Statistical Prediction of Recidivism

Abstract

The purpose of this research series was to investigate characteristics of a previously devised Recidivism Prediction Scheme with a regional sample of offenders and to assess possible means of integrating clinical and actuarial data sets. Study 1 revealed high interrater reliability coefficients, although agreement varied by items. Natives, maximum security inmates, and property offenders received poor prognostic scores in Studies 1 and 2. Study 2 provided validity data on the instrument and suggested how clinical and statistically based decisions might be integrated. However, in Study 3, the incorporation of clinical data into an actuarial scheme did little to improve the predictive accuracy of both multiple regression and unit weight systems when they were subjected to cross-validation.