Prediction of possible changes in glacio-hydrological characteristics under global warming: southeastern Alaska, U.S.A.

Abstract

We use the Wetherald and Manabe climate model to predict the response of mountain glaciers to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The response is measured in terms of a change in the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and the glacier terminus altitude (GTA), net accumulation–ablation on these altitudes and the melt runoff for 12 mountain-glacier regions in southeastern Alaska, U.S.A. The methods we use involve extrapolating climate-model temperature fields to a glacier’s location, and empirical–statistical relationships between air temperature and percentage of solid precipitation, and between summer air temperature and ablation and melt runoff. Our study shows that, under global warming, glaciation in southeastern Alaska will not disappear, but mass exchange of glaciers will be more intensive and the ELA value will increase by 300–760 m, depending on the glacier’s distance from the ocean.