XIV.—The Mathematical Theory of Random Migration and Epidemic Distribution

Abstract

The general theory of epidemic disease I have already considered in a communication to this Society. In that communication I showed that the course of epidemics of all forms of infectious disease obeyed certain very definite laws. In the same paper it was also shown that the distribution of epidemic disease in a uniformly populated area obeyed a law essentially similar. Certain reasons were given why the normal curve of error might be expected to give an approximate solution in both the cases considered, but why the distribution actually found (type iv.) should be the common form was not at all clear. I think, however, I have now arrived at the solution.