Megatrends or megamistakes? What ever happened to the information society?

Abstract

Most discourse about computers in the media and in the information technology (FT) industry is Utopian, yet there is a growing body of literature pointing to the lack of social transformation arising from computerization. This paper reviews the evidence for and against social transformation in terms of (1) lifestyles and (2) the structure of society, comparing past predictions with current reality. I conclude that most forecasts have gone awry because forecasters have ignored the human factor. I then outline some of the social problems, ethical dilemmas, and psychological maladies created by the computer revolution. These new problems were largely unforeseen and almost all involve difficulties in the way people relate to technology. The conclusion exhorts scientists and technologists to take more account of human needs and abilities when designing IT systems. Researchers, administrators, and business people will derive economic benefit from learning this central lesson of the IT revolution.