Learning Curve Models of Construction Productivity

Abstract

Current research into learning curve models of construction productivity is presented. Five mathematical models are identified and each of these are used to model unit rates for 65 sets of data. The correlation between predicted and actual unit rates is determined, and on this basis, it is concluded that the best predictor is a cubic model. The often cited straight‐line model is only marginally adequate. The validity of the straight‐line model is further undermined by showing that the learning rate is not a constant value. Time data for erecting and setting 466 precast concrete floor planks is used to support the conclusion that the straight‐line model is not a reliable model for predicting future performance.