Prediction of critical events in contexts of different numbers of alternative events.

Abstract

Predictions of critical events occurring with relative frequencies of 1/2, 1/4, and 1/6 were investigated within contexts of either 1, 3, or 5 alternative events. Predictions of occurrences of critical events were uninfluenced by the different numbers of alternative events but were influenced by the relative frequency of occurrence of the critical event. The numbers of correct predictions were in close agreement with what would be predicted according to mathematical expectation.