Rainfall Estimation in the Sahel: What Is the Ground Truth?

Abstract
Areal rainfall estimation from ground sensors is essential as a direct input to various hydrometeorological models or as a validation of remote sensing estimates. More critical than the estimation itself is the assessment of the uncertainty associated with it. In tropical regions knowledge on this topic is especially scarce due to a lack of appropriate data. It is proposed here to assess standard estimation errors of the areal rainfall in the Sahel, a tropical region of notoriously unreliable rainfall, and to validate those errors using the data of the EPSAT–Niger experiment. A geostatistical framework is considered to compute theoretical variances of estimation errors for the event-cumulative rainfall, and rain gauge networks of decreasing density are used for the validation. As a result of this procedure, charts giving the standard estimation error as a function of the network density, the area, and the rainfall depth are proposed for the Sahelian region. An extension is proposed for larger tim... Abstract Areal rainfall estimation from ground sensors is essential as a direct input to various hydrometeorological models or as a validation of remote sensing estimates. More critical than the estimation itself is the assessment of the uncertainty associated with it. In tropical regions knowledge on this topic is especially scarce due to a lack of appropriate data. It is proposed here to assess standard estimation errors of the areal rainfall in the Sahel, a tropical region of notoriously unreliable rainfall, and to validate those errors using the data of the EPSAT–Niger experiment. A geostatistical framework is considered to compute theoretical variances of estimation errors for the event-cumulative rainfall, and rain gauge networks of decreasing density are used for the validation. As a result of this procedure, charts giving the standard estimation error as a function of the network density, the area, and the rainfall depth are proposed for the Sahelian region. An extension is proposed for larger tim...