Teleconnective Response of the Pacific–North American Region Atmosphere to Large Central Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies

Abstract

A prominent year-round ensemble response to a global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly field fixed to that for January 1992 (near the peak of a major warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation episode) was observed in a 20-yr integration of the general circulation model used for operational seasonal prediction by the U.S. National Weather Service. This motivated a detailed observational reassessment of the teleconnections between strong SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and Pacific–North America region 700-hPa heights and U.S. surface temperatures and precipitation. The approach used consisted of formation of monthly mean composites formed separately from cases in which the SST anomaly in a key area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean was either large and positive or large and negative. Extensive permutation tests were conducted to test null hypotheses of no signal in these composites. The results provided a substantial case for the presence of teleconnections to either the pos... Abstract A prominent year-round ensemble response to a global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly field fixed to that for January 1992 (near the peak of a major warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation episode) was observed in a 20-yr integration of the general circulation model used for operational seasonal prediction by the U.S. National Weather Service. This motivated a detailed observational reassessment of the teleconnections between strong SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and Pacific–North America region 700-hPa heights and U.S. surface temperatures and precipitation. The approach used consisted of formation of monthly mean composites formed separately from cases in which the SST anomaly in a key area of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean was either large and positive or large and negative. Extensive permutation tests were conducted to test null hypotheses of no signal in these composites. The results provided a substantial case for the presence of teleconnections to either the pos...