Power, Uncertainty, and the Onset of International Violence

Abstract

This study suggests a particular conceptualization of power for purposes of explaining the onset of international warfare. Power is here understood as a capability to effect a reduction of environmental uncertainty, while the exercise of power for the benefit of an actor is the actual reduction of that uncertainty. Eight types of power configuration are specified, including, among others, control, subservience, constraint, and inversion. The conditions of power loss in alliance systems and power constraint in the form of geographical frontiers are found to be related to the frequency of war for central power nations. An alternative approach stemming from theories of international stability yields the same functional relationship as does the initial power framework. Additionally, a logarithmic relationship is found between the number of international poles existing in the period 1815-1945 and the frequency of war. Policy implications are derived relative to alliance-formation and responses to the emergence of new polar actors.