Development of New Ensemble Methods Based on the Performance Skills of Regional Climate Models over South Korea

Abstract

In this paper, the prediction skills of five ensemble methods for temperature and precipitation are discussed by considering 20 yr of simulation results (from 1989 to 2008) for four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by NCEP–Department of Energy and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) boundary conditions. The simulation domain is the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia, and the number of grid points is 197 × 233 with a 50-km horizontal resolution. Three new performance-based ensemble averaging (PEA) methods are developed in this study using 1) bias, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and absolute correlation (PEA_BRC), RMSE and absolute correlation (PEA_RAC), and RMSE and original correlation (PEA_ROC). The other two ensemble methods are equal-weighted averaging (EWA) and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). To derive the weighting coefficients and cross validate the prediction skills of the five ensemble methods, the authors considered 15-yr and 5-yr data, ...