An analytical formula for estimating the intensity of scattered radiation in an x‐ray image under various exposure conditions has been developed. The formula was derived using measured data of scatter and primary intensity for various exposure conditions. To simplify the formula, a scatter generation model was constructed mathematically which assumes that the scattered fluence in a material depends on three processes: (1) scattering of the primary photons; (2) scattering of previously scattered photons; and (3) attenuation of the scattered photons. Using this model, the dependence of scatter‐to‐primary ratio on phantom thickness and the tube voltage was expressed by a simple equation. Parameters included in the model were determined from the analysis of measured data. Based on empirical data, it was assumed that the dependence of scatter‐to‐primary ratio on air gap and field size is not affected by variations of phantom thickness and tube voltage. The final formula, which does not include the term of phantom thickness, gives an estimate of the intensity of the scattered radiation from exposure conditions. The scatter intensity estimated using the formula was compared with measured data for various phantom thicknesses, tube voltages, air gaps, and field sizes; the results show that the intensity of scattered radiation can be estimated within about ±10% using predetermined parameters.