A model for projecting regional employment in the U.K.

Abstract
Keogh G. T. and Elias D. P. B. (1979) A model for projecting regional employment in the U.K., Reg. Studies 13, 465–482. This paper describes a model for projecting demands for labour at the regional level, disaggregated by industry group. The model requires, as input, forecasts of employment by industry at the national level. Labour demand is then projected independently for each industry in each region on the basis of past trends in employment. The paper provides a detailed account of methodology and examines the technical characteristics and sensitivity of the regional model. It also considers the implications for regional unemployment of the projection model. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of this approach to forecasting employment are reviewed.