The Tipping-Point Model: Prediction of Change in the Racial Composition of Cleveland, Ohio, Neighborhoods, 1940–1970
- 1 April 1980
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
- Vol. 12 (4), 385-398
- https://doi.org/10.1068/a120385
Abstract
The tipping-point model of neighborhood change is tested for the years 1940–1970. The model posits that once a white area reaches a certain percentage of Negro residents the area will become completely Negro. Recent work by Steinnes (1977), who used a regression analysis of a sample of Chicago census tracts, supports the tipping-point concept. The present replication with Cleveland, Ohio, data differs from the earlier work in three ways: (1) control for sectoral growth patterns; (2) use of the entire population of Cleveland's tracts, rather than a sample of tracts, to determine whether the model is generalizable to the entire city; and (3) an expansion of the time frame of the study. The tipping-point model does not appear to be generalizable to the entire city of Cleveland. The findings suggest that social, economic, and historical factors need to be included in the model.Keywords
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