Development and Verification of a Schistosomiasis Transmission Model *

Abstract

Development of a model to predict the impact of water resource projects on transmission of schistosomiasis is described and verified with data from 54 villages in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Changes in disease prevalence following construction of an irrigation project are related to the linear extent of snail habitats and size of the infected human population. The model is used to compare the costs and effectiveness of alternative disease control measures. Results indicate that a combined controls program is most cost-effective but further work is needed to determine the optimal combination of controls.