Evaluation of Avalanche-mass Determination Approaches: An Example from the Himalaya, Pakistan

Abstract

An equation for prediction of annual avalanche mass was tested on nine avalanche paths in the Kaghan area of the Himalaya in Pakistan. The predicted masses were compared to measured avalanche-deposit masses produced during two winters (1985–86, 1986–87). The results indicate that, while the annual mass of avalanches could be predicted relatively well on the very large paths in the study area, significant over- and underestimation occurs on other paths. The average yield coefficient, or proportion of snow in the catchment which avalanches, is 0.0991 m⁻³. This figure varies significantly between paths but generally less between two winters on any given path. More accurate determination of annual avalanche masses in the study area requires both improved measurements of the equation parameters, as well as refinement of the empirically derived yield coefficient to reflect better the terrain and winter climatic conditions in the region.