Uncertainty Analysis in Multiplicative Models

1 August 1994

journal article
Published by Wiley in Risk Analysis

Vol. 14 (4), 571-576
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00271.x

Abstract

Uncertainties are usually evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis. However, multiplicative models with lognormal uncertainties, which are ubiquitous in risk assessments, allow for a simple and quick analytical uncertainty analysis. The necessary formulae are given, which may be evaluated by a desk calculator. Two examples illustrate the method.

Keywords

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