Prediction of an Exceptional Storm over France and Southern England (15–16 October 1987)

Abstract

The most violent storm to hit France in recent history–with wind gusts of 50 m s⁻¹ and waves of 15 m– is described. The structural and economic damage in France was considerable, but there were very few human casualties. Forecasts issued by the French weather service (Direction de la Météorologie Nationale or DMN) were successful in predicting the intensity of the storm, and an analysis is presented of how and why such forecasts were possible. In particular, the observations and numerical guidance from the fine mesh PERIDOT and the large-scale EMERAUDE DMN numerical systems and from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) available to operational forecasters are reviewed and the crucial role of proper use of numerical forecasts and human experience is examined.