EVALUATION OF MORTALITY DATA FOR CERVICAL CANCER WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO MASS SCREENING PROGRAMS, DENMARK, 1961–19711

Abstract

During the years 1961–1971, a total of 3696 women died in Denmark from cervical cancer. The average annual mortality per 1000 was 0.23 and was constant in this period. The mortality was 0.30 in the Capital where a mass screening program has existed since 1968; in the Provinces, where screening was negligible, the rate was 0.21; the time trend was also constant. The mortality was low in youth, reaching a level of 0.30 around 45 years. Single women had the lowest mortality; among married women it was double, among widows 2–4 times higher, among divorcees 4 times. Within the marital groups, the Capital had higher or the same rates as the Provinces, except for divorcees in the Provinces who had higher rates. The lowest socioeconomic groups had the highest death rates at young ages. The effects of a total vs. an age-specific case-finding program have been estimated under three circumstances, namely that mass screening could reduce the cervical cancer mortality by 10%, by 50%, or by 100%. The impact on the public's health has been evaluated by relating the hypothetically prevented cervical cancer deaths to all cancer deaths and to deaths from all causes. The general population was subdivided by age, marital status and residence and ranked according to cervical cancer mortality. These data were used to design programs which would minimize the number of examinees and maximize the number of prevented deaths.