Predictors of Change in Walking Velocity in Older Adults

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine factors that predict change in walking velocity in older people using a multivariate model. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SUBJECTS: A total of 588 persons older than age 60, including subjects residing in a continuing care retirement community (CCRC) (n = 248), and homebound (n = 79) and ambulatory (n = 261) subjects. Mean age at baseline = 77. MEASUREMENT: Independent variables included demographics, physician measures of lower‐extremity joint impairment and other musculoskeletal and neurological variables, comorbidities derived from physical examination and chart abstract, self‐assessed arthritis pain, depression, and anxiety. The major dependent variables were 2‐ and 4‐year decline in walking velocity below a threshold associated with nursing home placement. MAIN RESULTS: From baseline to Year 4, median walking velocity declined from 61.8 to 53.0 m/min, and the proportion of subjects above a threshold value of 11.5 m/min declined from 95.3% to 80.4%. Age, joint impairment, and weakness of quadriceps, measured at baseline, predicted 2‐year and 4‐year decline in walking velocity. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that joint impairment and quadriceps strength contribute significantly to crossing a clinically significant threshold in walking velocity among older people over time. Future research is needed to determine whether these risk factors can be modified through preventive interventions such as muscle‐strengthening exercises and pain medication. J Am Geriatr Soc 44:126–132, 1996.