The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
Open Access
- 1 May 2007
- journal article
- Published by Springer Nature in British Journal of Cancer
- Vol. 96 (9), 1484-1488
- https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
Abstract
We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.Keywords
This publication has 14 references indexed in Scilit:
- The evolution of the population-based cancer registryNature Reviews Cancer, 2006
- The Calman–Hine report: a personal retrospective on the UK's first comprehensive policy on cancer servicesThe Lancet Oncology, 2006
- Predicting the future burden of cancerNature Reviews Cancer, 2005
- Cancer and ageing: a nexus at several levelsNature Reviews Cancer, 2005
- Lung cancer rate predictions using generalized additive modelsBiostatistics, 2005
- Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: empirical comparison of different approachesStatistics in Medicine, 2003
- Recent Trends in Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Southeast EnglandEuropean Urology, 2003
- Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020.2002
- Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age–period–cohort modelsStatistics in Medicine, 1987
- Using Age, Period and Cohort Models to Estimate Future Mortality RatesInternational Journal of Epidemiology, 1985