The Prediction of Learning Problems in a Rural Setting

Abstract

The early prediction of learning problems was studied in a low socioeconomic rural school district. Two standard reading readiness tests and a popular group intelligence test were administered early in first grade. In addition, a subsample of the children was individually administered a picture vocabulary test, a test of visual motor performance, and a test of emotional maturity in the summer before these children started school. The criterion measures were a group achievement test and teacher rating of overall performance secured at the end of first and second grades. The prediction of learning problems for individual children was measured, using a cutting score on the readiness tests and problem-no problem distinctions on the double criterion of achievement test and teacher rating. The results showed that the readiness tests correctly predict first grade performance 86 percent of the time and second grade performance 73 percent of the time. One of the readiness tests correlated .70 with the combined criterion, .76 with the achievement test, and .58 with the teacher ratings. The three individual tests used did not add significantly to the variance accounted for by the readiness tests.