The delphi technique in urban forecasting

Abstract

Ley D. F. and Anderson G. (1975) The delphi technique in urban forecasting. Reg. Studies 9, 243–249. The adaptive system is information-consumptive; this attribute holds for social, urban and regional systems, and is particularly true for information of future states of the system's environment. The battery of forecasting techniques available to elicit this information may be categorized into technical and intuitive methodologies, each with advantages and shortcomings. The Delphi technique is suggested as a linking methodology which retains both systematization and firm contact with the real world. An empirical Delphi forecast of the urban future of Nanaimo, British Columbia indicates the versatility of the instrument, its avoidance of biases inherent in other methods, and its particular appropriateness to participatory planning.