The effects of climate variability and change on grape suitability in Europe

Abstract

A latitude‐temperature index (LTI) has been used in combination with a winter severity constraint to assess climate suitability of grapes in different regions of Europe. A detailed analysis has been carried out using period mean and individual year data for the 1951–1980 period. This allows for identification of core areas of suitability for each of four broadly defined grape cultivar groupings (cool to hot‐climate grapes). Areas that are at the northern margins of suitability, and that are marginal between different groups are also identified. A much clearer picture of the present distribution of grapes in Europe is given by this approach. The possible effect of climate change on grape suitability has also been evaluated. Output from several general circulation models (GCMs) have been used to adjust the period mean and individual year data and the LTI calculated for these adjusted data. While there is a range of uncertainty, both in relation to the magnitude and timing of climate change, it is evident that unmitigated climate change could have a significant impact on the distribution of grapes in Europe.