A Theory of Human Decisionmaking in Stochastic Estimation Tasks
- 1 April 1977
- journal article
- Published by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics
- Vol. 7 (4), 274-283
- https://doi.org/10.1109/tsmc.1977.4309702
Abstract
Human decisionmaking in stochastic estimation tasks is considered. Theoretical and experimental results from mathematical psychology are reviewed. Concepts from stochastic estimation theory are used to develop a theory of human decisionmaking that employs optimal stochastic estimators with a short-term memory model, at least one long-term model, and a method of trading off estimates derived from each model. Approaches to testing the theory as well as the theory's implications are discussed. Also, the limitations of a linear theory are considered.Keywords
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