A prognostic classification of myelofibrosis with myeloid metaplasia

Abstract

The dependence of survival time on a set of prognostic factors was explored by means of Cox's regression model in 137 cases of myelofibrosis with myeloid metaplasia (MMM). The following parameters recorded at diagnosis proved to be important independent indicators of a poor prognosis: a higher value for age, a lower value for Hb concentration, a higher value for immature myeloid cells in peripheral blood (IMC), a lower value for total erythroid iron turnover (TEIT), and a bone marrow red cell aplasia (RCA). A prognostic classification tree was constructed whose terminal nodes (risk groups), described by simple logical conditions upon important indicators, were characterized by significantly different expected survival. The two extreme risk groups lend themselves to a simple, but complete description. The low-risk group (19.7% of the sample) comprises cases who had the diagnosis of MMM before age 45 and a number of IMC constantly lower than 24%. The actuarial proportion of patients surviving at 15 years was 100%. The high-risk group (29.9% of cases) comprises patients with age greater than 45 and Hb lower than 13 g/dl, associated with RCA, or with a relatively decreased erythropoiesis (TEIT lower than 2 times the normal) or with IMC greater than 24%. Seven out of the 11 who died within this group developed blastic crisis. Median survival time of the group was 69 months.