Contingent and Noncontingent Effects of Unemployment

Abstract

Does unemployment set its victims on a permanent downward trail in terms of future occupation? Interviews of a randomly selected group of 177 men who survived the Depression of the 1930s, and who are currently living in Adelaide, South Australia, showed that half had experienced unemployment during the 1930s. Though unemployment was concentrated overwhelmingly among men of working-class origin, the formerly unemployed experienced such high rates of mobility in later life that by the time of retirement their class distribution was similar to that of those who escaped unemployment. Reasons for this unexpected finding are discussed. It is argued that the principal explanation for the mobility pattern of this group of survivors lies in structural changes in the economy between 1940 and their retirement. All the explanatory factors cited are contingent upon a particular set of historical circumstances. The conclusion is reached that it is only in a very weak sense that one can talk at all about noncontingent, or necessary, effects of unemployment.