Temporal and Spatial Diffusion in the Comparative Analysis of Social Change

Abstract

The conceptual and methodological outlines of a new approach to the comparative analysis of social change are expressed in a general time-series regression model which can serve as a framework for developing specific theories of social change for particular variables. The approach seeks to explain the variation over time in a macro-level attribute or action of a social system as a function of a combination of within-system, across-system, and across-time processes: (1) incrementalism or momentum, or the within-system temporal diffusion of the dependent variable; (2) within-system causal development, or the influence of other characteristics of the system itself; (3) spatial diffusion, or the spread of the dependent variable from system to system; and (4) global contextual forces, such as war, depression and shortage of resources. In addition to reconsidering the nature of “the comparative method,” the discussion focuses on the process of diffusion and how it fits in with the other processes, especially from a time-series perspective.