Abstract
This paper examines how to assess the military value of unit training in the same quantitative cost and effectiveness terms used to assess investments in other areas such as acquisition of new weapon systems or of more forces of various kinds; it is a preliminary effort. The military value of training in relation to the value of weapons or forces is difficult to quantify, and data that would shed light on it are sparse; a new approach is proposed here. The approach consists, first, of experimenting with a large-scale computer simulation of warfare to find how imputed effects of unit training on unit proficiency affect the outcome of a modelled NATO/WP conventional conflict. Second, the outputs of the model runs are reviewed for reasonableness, and are used to set up a series of questions to elicit military judgments and any available test. The final steps will be to estimate the costs of the levels and kinds of training that emerge, and then to use similar modeling techniques (or existing results) to compare investments in training and in force size or force modernization to achieve equal effects on the outcome of the war. This paper describes the first experiments, the results of the initial model runs, and the next steps to be taken in the investigation, in terms of questions to be answered by military experts, data to be gathered if they are available, and analyses to be performed subsequently.