Prime Ministers, Parties, and the Public: The Dynamics of Government Popularity in Great Britain

Abstract

This article proposes and tests a model of British party support between 1953 and 1987, including prime minister's popularity, economic fluctuations, and short-term noneconomic factors. We argue that public evaluations of the prime minister (PM) have had an increasingly important effect on relative party popularity (“government lead”). We demonstrate that this enhanced link between PM popularity and government lead began in the 1960s, well before the Thatcher era. We also attempt to demonstrate that noneconomic factors (wars, scandals, etc.) exert indirect effects on government lead through voters' evaluations of the prime minister. The results of this test, however, are inconclusive. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of British politics.