• 1 January 1976
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 28 (5), 442-452
Abstract
The age or rate of increase of a variant on the basis of the present number of replicates was observed in a population. In place of previous diffusion equation analyses of age probability distributions, the likelihood for the age is studied on the basis of a discrete branching process model. Variations inherent in the gene evolution process in natural populations make it impossible to provide a reliable point estimate of the age of a specified variant, although the likelihood analysis provides a confidence interval which may place useful bounds on the period in which a variant originated. Observed distribution of numbers of several variants may also provide useful information. Problems of estimation are discussed with reference to rare variants arising in American Indian populations.