Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat

Abstract

Hazardous effects of tephra fallout on Montserrat include roof collapse, aviation threats, health hazards from respirable crystalline silica, crop pollution, road safety and lahar generation. An advection-diffusion model was developed to investigate tephra dispersal from dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions, which generated most of the fallout tephra during the 1995–1999 eruptive period of Soufrière Hills Volcano. Wind field, atmospheric diffusion, gravity settling, aggregation and elutriation processes are considered. Computed isomass maps compare well with field observations and require aggregation of fine ash for good agreement. Probability maps were also compiled. Individual probability maps (for individual dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions) are based on the statistics of wind profiles and show that fallout tephra generated by individual eruptive events on a Montserrat scale do not cause serious damage in any area on Montserrat. Cumulative probability maps (for a given scenario of activity) are generated by sampling statistical distributions of wind profiles and eruptive events over an extended period of time. They show that persistent tephra fallout can accumulate enough material to cause roof collapses and serious damage to vegetation in the SW part of the island, and minor damage to vegetation in the north, as also confirmed by field data.