Potential Responses of Permafrost to Climatic Change

Abstract

The nature and magnitude of climatic changes associated with anticipated global warming are considered in terms of their implications for the permafrost regions. Extensive areas where permafrost is presently within a degree or two of the melting point would be destabilized. Areas of ice‐rich permafrost would be most significantly affected, since terrain conditions could be changed greatly by thermokarst and developing slope instability. In addition, the strength of existing permafrost will change as it warms. The impacts of such changes to the use and occupation of the permafrost regions will depend on the rate at which the natural conditions change. In this regard, the relationship between climatic warming and permafrost response is not simple. However, the role of various key surface and lithologic controls is illustrated. Finally, recommendations are given for organizing our present understanding of the issues and for research necessary to refine this understanding.