Toward a Stage Theory of Urban Growth

Abstract

For some time, planners have been searching for a clear statement of the relationships between urban environmental change and population movement and characteristics. This article formulates a stage theory of urban growth that permits the analyst and the planner to consider, at the same time, physical changes in individual neighborhoods and the migration of people through neighborhoods. The theory is empirically verified for the New Haven SMSA, relying on a complete pretest of the 1970 census conducted in New Haven in 1967. Particular attention is given to the movement of blacks within the region.