Probabilistic Production Costing With Dependent Generating Sources

Abstract

Dependent generators are power sources whose output depends on natural factors which are statistically interdependent with the load, such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic cells. Because of these statistical interactions, usual methods of probabilistic production costing cannot be used. This paper presents a new method for production costing which treats power sources with statistically correlated outputs. The method uses the Gram-Charlier series and a modification of the cumulants summation formula which accounts for statistical correlation. The paper also discusses additional applications of this method and some computational results.