An Improved Method for Survival Rate Analysis from Time Series of Haematophagous Dipteran Populations

Abstract

(1) A method of estimating the oviposition cycle duration and survival rate of haematophagous Diptera from time-series data has been improved by the incorporation of weighted linear regressions and filtered cross-correlations. Statistical checks have been incorporated for determining the most appropriate method of analysis. Simulation studies were used to test the procedures. (2) Time series for Culex quinquefasciatus (Culicidae), Culicoides obsoletus, C. imicola and C. newsteadi (Ceratopogonidae), and Simulium damnosum s.l. (Simuliidae) were reanalyzed. (3) For most of the series, the reanalyses provided an unbiased estimate of survival rate and improved estimation of standard errors. They confirmed that statistically significant correlations can exist within population data, from which oviposition interval can be deduced. (4) The improved method will be useful for estimating the vectorial capacity of haematophagous Diptera, and in studies of their life-history strategy.