Interval probability theory for evidential support

Abstract

An interval theory of probability is presented for use as a measure of evidential support in knowledge‐based systems. an interval number is used to capture, in a relatively simple manner, features of fuzziness and incompleteness. the vertex method is used for the interval analysis. A new parameter (also an interval number), p, called the degree of dependence is introduced. the relationship of this interval probability with the theories of Dempster‐Shafer, fuzzy sets, and Baldwin's support logic are discussed. the advantage of the theory is that it is based on a development of the axioms of probability, but allows that evidential support for a conjecture be separated from evidential support for the negation of the conjecture.