Preliminary evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19, for cases reported globally up to 29th February 2020

Abstract

Seasonal variation in COVID-19 incidence could impact the trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 29^th February 2020 and global gridded temperature data, and after adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, higher average temperature was strongly associated with lower COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of 1°C and higher. However, temperature explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 incidence. These preliminary findings support stringent containment efforts in Europe and elsewhere.