Farr's Law Applied to AIDS Projections
- 16 March 1990
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Medical Association (AMA)
- Vol. 263 (11), 1522-1525
- https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1990.03440110088033
Abstract
Farr's Law of Epidemics, first promulgated in 1840 and resurrected by Brownlee in the early 1900s, states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a normal bell-shaped curve. We applied this simple law to the reported annual incidence of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States from 1982 through 1987. The 6 years of incidence data closely fit a normal distribution that crests in late 1988 and then declines to a low point by the mid-1990s. The projected size of the epidemic falls in the range of 200 000 cases. A continuing incidence of endemic cases can be expected to emerge, but we believe it will occur at a low level. (JAMA. 1990;263:1522-1525)Keywords
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