Social Projection and Social Conformity in Adolescent Alcohol Use: A Longitudinal Analysis

Abstract

This longitudinal investigation disentangles social projection from social conformity as mechanisms underlying the false consensus effect. Adolescent alcohol use was the context for the study. Self-reports of own alcohol consumption and estimates of the prevalence of peer use of alcohol were collected at two time points separated by approximately 1 year. Results indicated that conformity as well as social projection occurred in the sample of 378 seventh- and eighth-grade boys and girls. With respect to conformity, regression analysis revealed that prevalence estimates at Time 1 predicted level of own use of alcohol at Time 2, after controlling for own use at Time 1. Similar results were obtained when onset of d7inking was the critical measure. Social projection was demonstrated by the finding that level of own alcohol use at Time 1 predicted prevalence estimates at Time 2, after controlling for estimates at Time 1. Implications for research on the false consensus effect are discussed.