An Analysis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Data in Taiwan and Korea

Abstract

An analysis is carried out on pulmonary tuberculosis survey data from Taiwan and Korea. A mathematical model based on a Markov process is developed and used to estimate transition rates between various disease states, as well as certain ‘infection parameters’, which measure the strength of the relative contributions of different disease states and of endogenous reactivation to the incidence of tuberculosis in the population. It is found that endogenous reactivation plays a primary role in generating cases, followed by chronic sources of infection, particularly those with drug-sensitive organisms. Some recommendations are made with regard to optimizing treatment regimens. The methodology can easily be applied to other countries.