The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

Abstract

What determines the timing of human actions? A big question, but the science of human dynamics is here to tackle it. And its predictions are of practical value: for example, when ISPs decide what bandwidth an institution needs, they use a model of the likely timing and activity level of the individuals. Current models assume that an individual has a well defined probability of engaging in a specific action at a given moment, but evidence that the timing of human actions does not follow this pattern (of Poisson statistics) is emerging. Instead the delay between two consecutive events is best described by a heavy-tailed (power law) distribution. Albert-László Barabási proposes an explanation for the prevalence of this behaviour. The ‘bursty’ nature of human dynamics, he finds, is a fundamental consequence of decision making. The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behaviour into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes1,2,3. In contrast, there is increasing evidence that the timing of many human activities, ranging from communication to entertainment and work patterns, follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity4,5,6,7,8. Here I show that the bursty nature of human behaviour is a consequence of a decision-based queuing process9,10: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, with most tasks being rapidly executed, whereas a few experience very long waiting times. In contrast, random or priority blind execution is well approximated by uniform inter-event statistics. These finding have important implications, ranging from resource management to service allocation, in both communications and retail.